Ontario export growth to outperform national average in 2010, says EDC


Ontario’s international exports are forecast to outpace the national rate thanks, in large part, to the rebound in the auto sector, a new provincial report says.

Peter Hall, chief economist for Export Development Canada (EDC) said last week that the province’s export rate to grow by 14 per cent in 2010 and 7 per cent in 2011.

“Ontario is one of only two provinces where exports will outperform the national average this year and next,” said Hall at the meeting in London. “The province can tip its hat to the huge rebound in the auto sector and robust gold production.”

National export growth is forecast to ring in at 12 per cent in 2010 and decelerate to 6 per cent in 2011.

“There were many who considered Ontario exports a write-off only a few months, but the auto sector has experienced a remarkable about-face, and exports of industrial goods are also in the double-digit growth zone.”

The auto sector, at 29 per cent of Ontario’s total exports, is forecast to grow by a stunning 43 per cent in 2010 and a further 10 per cent in 2010

“Soaring demand for several Canadian-made models has further boosted our rosy spring forecast,” Hall added. “Exports to the US have held up in spite of weak overall sales stateside. Ontario auto production has strengthened enough to spur significant new investments in the sector.”

“The auto parts sector is still struggling with recession-induced credit challenges and a higher-cost operating environment, but will enjoy strong demand from U.S. OEM’s, which are also experiencing robust growth rates. Price pressures remain, but overall shipments of motor vehicles and parts look good through 2011.”

In the wake of the recession, the industrial goods industry sector has claimed top spot among Ontario exports at 32 per cent of the total. The EDC forecast calls for export growth of 15 per cent in 2010 and 4 per cent in 2011.

Canadian exports are forecast to rise 12 per cent in 2010 and 6 per cent in 2011. Nationally, economic growth is expected to rise 3 per cent in 2010 and 2.2 per cent in 2011. Internationally, EDC is forecasting global growth of 4.3 per cent in 2010 and 3.9 per cent in 2011. EDC’s Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/gef.

EDC’s semi-annual Global Export Forecast addresses the latest global export conditions including perspectives on interest rates, exchange rates as well as export strategies to help Canadian companies minimize risk. It also analyzes a range of risks for which exporters should be prepared.